At Sunday’s Indians-Royals game, one fan nabbed four foul balls, a feat the odds of which some estimate at being one in one trillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000! Since the probability of this event happening is so tiny, isn’t it more likely that this really didn’t happen at all? Isn’t this more likely to be a mistake, a fraud, a vast conspiracy, or a mass hallucination?
No, not really. While the odds of this happening to you at a single major league baseball game may be minuscule, the odds of this happening to someone, somewhere, sooner or later, may be relatively quite high. Even if not, there are so many improbable events possible in the world that we should not be surprised when one of them happens sometime. (To clarify, I believe in divine providence and miracles, but also I accept theories of mathematical probability.)