Stuff My Sisters Will Like

To Jenny, Katie and Laura, From Their Brother, Victor

The Odds of Repealing Obamacare July 2, 2012

Filed under: Neat,Politics,Silly Studies,Stuff — Fr. Victor Feltes @ 8:00 am

What are the odds that the healthcare law will be repealed in the near future?

For this to occur, I assume that Republicans will need to win the Presidency, retain control of the House of Representatives, and win control of the Senate this November. If all three occur, a Republican Repeal bill would pass the House and the Senate (bypassing the filibuster through reconciliation with 51 votes) and be promptly signed into effect by the president next year.

How likely is this to happen? According to the prediction markets at Intrade (basically a gambling site for wagering upon current events) we can come up with an estimated probability.

On July 1st, the Intrade odds for how things will look after this fall’s elections were as follows:
A. Republican control of the White House = 42.2%
B. Republican control of the Senate = 56.3%
C. Republican control of the House of Rep. = 85.4%

Thus, the odds of all three happening and Obamacare’s subsequent repeal (A x B x C) = 20.3%
Conversely, what are the odds of the Democrats preventing this repeal? On July 1st, according to Intrade:

D. Democrat control of the White House = 57.2%
E. Democrat control of the Senate = 32.4%
F. Democrat control of the House of Rep. = 23.6%

The odds that none of these Obamacare-preserving events occur ((1-D)x(1-E)x(1-F)) = 22.1%

Therefore, as things look now, the Obamacare law appears about 79% likely to endure for at least the next couple of years.

(On the other hand, it must be noted that the Intrade markets had predicted a 74% probability that the individual mandate would be ruled unconstitutional the day before the Supreme Court upheld it. Prediction markets can be wrong. Do self-interested observers understand federal elections better than they understand the Supreme Court? Probably, but we will watch as these prediction percentages change in the months ahead.)

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